Yesterday we saw a new all time high in Bitcoin Futures (/BTC) with the price temporarily reaching 110,150 before consolidating.  With the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump on January 20^th, we’ve seen Wall Street and retail traders shift consensus citing an era of more supportive crypto regulation.  Former SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) Chair Gary Gensler, who recently resigned Monday, was historically a proponent of increased regulation and oversight in the cryptocurrency industry.  Temporarily filling Gensler’s shoes will be Mark Uyeda, who is bridging the gap to give time to ready a replacement. Paul Atkins, who served as the SEC commissioner from 2002 to 2008, will step into the position permanently.  Atkins has gone on record as a strong backer of cryptocurrencies and freedom/innovative capital market structures.

With this shift in sentiment, there is speculation surrounding the government and a potential for creating a cryptocurrency strategic reserve.  One large proponent is Coinbase’s CEO Brian Armstrong, who reinforced his advocacy for the industry at the most recent World Economic Forum.  Armstrong went on to state, “The U.S. has reserves in a lot of things, gold, oil, and 27 different rare minerals.  I think the world is moving to a bitcoin standard for money. Any government who holds gold should hold bitcoin as a reserve.”

One of the first countries to adopt a governmental bitcoin strategic reserve is El Salvador.  Their President, Nayib Bukele, has been accumulating bitcoin for the strategic reserve since around 2021.  El Salvador added 1 million worth of Bitcoin (12 BTC) to its strategic reserve last week, officially increasing their holdings to 6044 BTC total. The Country recently striked an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to scale back some of their cryptocurrency adoptions. In return for 1.4 billion in financing, they created stipulations on the government’s role surrounding how they can use cryptocurrency. 

Looking at the daily chart for the Bitcoin Futures January 2025 (/BTCF25) contract, we see a temporary or short-term support range around 90,000 with long-term resistance around 110,000. The future is currently trading above all three Simple Moving Averages, or SMA’s (50, 100, 200) which signifies a strengthening bullish trend.  We notice a divergence between price action and the Relative Strength Index, or RSI. While the 14-period RSI is slightly above neutral territory reading 58.7807, the future is coming off all-time highs.  According to the CFTC Commitment of Traders Report published January 14^th, we saw Asset Managers, Dealers, and Leveraged Funds all net long going into the Presidential Inauguration. 

10:00 am ET: U.S. leading economic indicators