Gold prices set a new high yesterday as reciprocal tariffs shake equity investors. The dollar index rose yesterday based on positive economic news, but gains were limited as Treasury note yields fell. Precious metals will be looking ahead to a slew of economic announcements throughout the week. The euro traded higher to start the week but gave up early gains. The Yen rose yesterday after the Nikkei Stock Index opened sharply lower. Precious metals have numerous factors pushing them higher including equity market volatility and geopolitical tensions leading investors to safe haven. 

Equity markets rallied yesterday to close higher, and the dollar index saw early buying pressure after the US March MNI Chicago unexpectedly increased +2.1 to a 16-month high of 47.6, beating the expected decline to 45.0. The US Dallas Fed March manufacturing activity outlook survey dropped -8.0 to -16.3, much weaker that the expected increase to -5.0. 

The dollar and precious metals are expected to see volatility this week based on a variety of US economic announcements. Today's US March ISM manufacturing index is expected to drop -0.8 to 49.5. Wednesday's ADP employment change is expected to increase +120,000. Thursday the March ISM services index is expected to drop -0.5 to 53.0. On Friday, March nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase +138,000, the March unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 4.1%, and March average hourly earnings are expected to increase +0.3% m/m and +4.0% y/y.

The Euro closed lower yesterday after German March consumer prices were weaker than expected, a dovish factor for ECB policy. The euro saw some support after German Feb retail sales rose more than expected, increasing +0.8% m/m, beating the expectation of going unchanged. German March CPI increased +2.3% y/y, weaker than the expected +2.4% y/y increase. 

The yen traded higher against the dollar yesterday after the Nikkei Stock Index gapped down, sparking safe-haven demand for the yen. Japan Feb industrial production increased +2.5% m/m, stronger than the expectations of +2.0% m/m. Japan Feb retail sales increased +0.5% m/m, well above the expected -0.2% m/m decline. The BOJ reduced its buying of long-term government bonds, reducing the amount of 10-year and 25-year debt it will buy in Q2 to 405 billion yen from 450 billion yen in Q1.

Precious metals continued to rally into the close yesterday despite the equity markets rebounding. Safe haven demand is on the rise with global bond yields pushing lower and trade war concerns ahead of Wednesday's implementation of reciprocal tariffs. Precious metals are also getting support from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Israel has continued their airstrikes against Gaza, ending a two-month ceasefire with Hamas and the US continues to launch strikes on Yemen's Houthi rebels.

Looking at the daily chart for the Gold Futures June 2025 (/GCM25) contract we can see the continuation of the uptrend on above average volume over the past 3 trading sessions. The contract tested the 20-Day Simple Moving Average 2-weeks ago and has rallied significantly since that time. Gold continues to trade well above the 50-Day and 200-Day SMA price points. 

According to the Daily Technical Summary from the Hightower support levels were found at 3074.9 and 3056.8 with resistance levels at 3102.9 and 3112.9. Both resistance levels were broken during yesterday’s trading. 

According to the CFTC Commitment of Traders Report released March 25 managed money traders have decreased their long position by -7,375 contracts and increased their short position by +1,728 contracts. Managed money traders are net long 174,732 contracts.

The 14-Day Relative Strength Index at 76.42% indicates the contract has moved into overbought territory.

Construction Spending 10:00 AM ET

ISM Manufacturing Index 10:00 AM ET

JOLTS - Job Openings 10:00 AM ET

S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI - Final 9:45 AM ET