After Sell-Off, Investors Brace for Inflation Data
Transcript of the podcast:
Here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Monday, November 9.
After last week's turbulence, investors might be hoping for some calm in days ahead. Today's calendar is light, followed tomorrow by October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) that might help determine the Federal Reserve's next move. Berkshire Hathaway reported over the weekend and could be in the spotlight today.
Major indexes had a roller coaster ride last week as investors absorbed Apple earnings, the Democratic surge in Tuesday's U.S. election, a relief rally Wednesday, and then the worst sell-off in 19 months on Thursday.
Looking ahead to CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET tomorrow, analysts expect headline monthly inflation growth of 0.3%, down from 0.6% in September. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is seen up 0.2%, slower than the 0.3% September gain. There won't be a year-over-year CPI number reported because of last year's government shutdown.
Fed speeches and Treasury auctions are peppered through the week, with several Fed speakers on the calendar today. The Atlanta Fed is also expected to update its GDPNow tool later today, with estimated fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth last calculated at 3.4%.
A 10-year Treasury note auction Tuesday and a 30-year bond auction Thursday might be watched for demand signals with yields somewhat lower than the last time these were auctioned.
"Generally speaking, if you get a weak demand, that can be a little bit concerning," said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). "But demand has generally held up, and I think that that should continue given the relative attractiveness of where yields are today."
Friday brought October jobs data that topped expectations and painted the picture of a vigorous U.S. economy with 165,000 jobs added. Analysts had expected 65,000. Unemployment dipped to 4.1% from the previous 4.2%, and monthly wages rose 0.4% versus 0.3% expectations.
"This was a relatively strong jobs report across the board," Martin said Friday. "It may help calm some of the fears that spread to the markets yesterday on AI concerns, supporting the case that the economy remains strong."
The jobs report came with investors still assessing damage from Thursday's 4% plunge in the S&P 500 Index and 7% drop in tech amid fears that Democratic control of Congress could accelerate what's already been growing regulatory pushback against the AI infrastructure buildout across many U.S. states.
The Nasdaq Composite hit correction territory down more than 10% from last month's highs, and semiconductor stocks entered Friday's session down 30% from their peaks after a 12% shellacking on Thursday alone.
"We're in another round of trying to figure out what the speed limit is for this buildout," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at SCFR, in an interview with Bloomberg after Thursday's washout on data center worries. She noted that the tech sector, down 7% that day, was the only sector to perform worse than the overall market, meaning the sell-off was concentrated.
Wall Street's fear gauge—the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX—spiked more than 65% Thursday to a seven-month high above 28. It remained elevated Friday at 24.5, down 13% from the day before. Any reading above 20 can reflect rising uncertainty and investors trying to take defensive hedges.
In other data Friday, the University of Michigan's preliminary November Consumer Sentiment report exceeded expectations with a headline reading of 51.0%. It was the second consumer check recently to show survey takers in a better mood, following the latest consumer confidence report.
Consensus was 47.2%, according to Briefing.com, and October's reading was 48.0%. A critical aspect of the report, long-term inflation expectations, fell to 3.4% from 3.5% in October.
In the wake of the jobs data, Treasury yields found new life, mostly rising Friday, and odds of a Fed hike next month climbed to 77% late Friday after falling to around 60% Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Yields initially fell after the election on ideas that with a divided U.S. government both parties might be restrained on spending. The 10-year yield ended the week down seven basis points at 4.86%.
Earnings slow this week. However, CoreWeave reports tomorrow afternoon, an important barometer of "neocloud" companies in the news lately for heavy borrowing to fund data centers.
Others to watch include Constellation Energy this morning, Rocket Lab this afternoon, and Nebius, Cisco, and Applied Materials on Thursday. Results from Rocket Lab might affect trading of competitor SpaceX.
As of Friday, with 88% of firms reporting, 84% of S&P 500 companies had surpassed Wall Street's earnings expectations, and blended earnings growth year-over-year was 31.4%, FactSet said. This topped the previous week's 29%, meaning even as Wall Street suffered its worst sell-off in 19 months, earnings improved.
On Friday, major indexes finished mixed, drawing most of their fuel from a rebound in tech but ending well off intraday highs. This could be a sign that investors remain cautious after Thursday's sell-off. The last hour of Friday's session likely disappointed bulls and won't auger well for action today.
Checking sectors, only four of 11 turned green, led by a 1% gain in tech that looked rather weak considering it fell 7% the day before. Cyclical industrials and discretionary sectors were light gainers, while consumer staples and financials slid as rate hike odds rose.
"The sell-off is a reminder of the perils of concentration risk," said Alexandra Semenova, financial insights strategist at SCFR. "For long-term investors, diversification remains important, with greater emphasis on companies that have strong balance sheets, durable earnings growth and resilient margins."
Technically, the S&P 500 Index is well below prior support at 7,600. That leaves its 200-day moving average near 7,300 as a key level to watch. Big round numbers are in vogue, and 7,400—a level the S&P 500 tried and failed to bounce off at midday Thursday. Its failure to hold intraday gains above that on Friday is technically a poor signal.
Among individual movers Friday, chip and AI-related stocks were a sea of green. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) advanced 4.2% after closing Thursday down 30% from its 2026 high. Leaders included Applied Digital up nearly 10%, AppLovin up 9.7%, Super Micro Computer gaining 6%, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing rising 6%.
The biggest chip firms, including Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, Broadcom, and Intel made nice comebacks, with AMD up 11% and Nvidia up 3% Friday. All remain well below 2026 peaks.
SpaceX and Tesla climbed 9% and 4%, respectively Friday, after selling off on worries about Democrats investigating Elon Musk and possibly preventing a widely-discussed merger of the firms. On Friday, Musk said SpaceX will have an annual rate of revenue above $100 billion in December. Tesla rose after Musk said the company would wind down Cybertruck production in Texas around mid-2027.
Lyft dropped 4% after reporting earnings and revenue that both missed consensus. Gross bookings, however, hit a record high, up 17% annually.
Lam Research rose more than 8% after its board authorized a $25 billion stock buyback.
DraftKings folded 21% after announcing earnings, revenue, and Sportsbook revenue numbers that missed expectations.
Airlines, automakers, retailers, home building firms, and restaurant stocks mostly fell Friday on rising concerns about a December rate hike after the solid jobs data.
Gold fell 1% after being one of the few major assets to rise in value both Wednesday and Thursday, possibly as a defensive hedge and as Treasury yields weakened.
The dollar rose 0.75% Friday and might also have pressured metals. Strength in the U.S. economy likely gave the greenback a tailwind.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) dropped 237.33 points (-0.46%) Friday to 51,285.73; the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) added 23.13 points (+0.31%) to 7,376.86, and the Nasdaq Composite® ($COMP) gained 264.43 points (+1.09%) to 24,579.42.
For the week, the DJIA gave back 0.94%, the SPX slid 2.68%, and the Nasdaq Composite plunged 3.37%.