Relatively hot inflation reports might be blips, but they reinforce why the Fed's rate-cutting cycle might be more gradual, which could be a better backdrop for stocks.
Market folklore provides an easy, but inaccurate guide for investing in today's interconnected and complex market. Indicators based on economic or market behavior may be preferred.
While focus remains on when the Fed will start cutting rates, history suggests other factors must be looked at when assessing forward stock market performance.
Market expectations have established a high bar for central banks' rate cuts. Any disappointment like stronger inflation or economic growth could spark market volatility.
Credit quality in the muni market likely has peaked, but we believe states' strong rainy-day funds and other attributes will lend stability in the near term.
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